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Virtualization predictions for 2009

With the end of the year approaching, virtualization pundits are coming out with their predictions for 2009. I won’t be coming out with any of my own — I had to sell my crystal ball to buy a few last-minute Christmas gifts — but here’s a roundup of what the experts say to expect in the next 12 months:

  • Microsoft Hyper-V will take the market by storm … or not. IDC predicts that “the number of footprints that Hyper-V makes … will be staggering and will turn the volume metrics of the market upside down,” according to Parallels CEO Serguei Beloussov thinks Microsoft will eventually have success, but not next year. Writing on, he says, “Organizations will not really start to run large numbers of Hyper-V-based VMs in production until Microsoft addresses major issues such as the lack of core features, incomplete tools, the perception that Hyper-V is only for Windows … and the lack of clear differentiation.”
  • 2009 will be “The Year of the Cloud.” Credit for the term goes to Jake Sorofman of DABCC, who predicts that CIOs will stop looking at cloud computing as an abstract concept and start coming up with real strategies to use it in their businesses. The recession, as well as the growing problem of virtual machine sprawl, will drive CIOs to make this move, Sorofman says. But he’s not the only one predicting big things for cloud computing in 2009.
  • Belloussov says “the sky’s the limit for cloud computing.” He writes that cloud computing will affect all kinds of service providers in 2009, from hosting companies to VARs, and the ones who succeed will be those who automate as much of its processes as possible to improve efficiency — which, after all, is the point, right?
  • And VMware CTO Stephen Herrod says virtualization will become the de facto infrastructure for cloud computing. As more businesses use virtualization to turn their existing data centers into “internal clouds,” it only makes sense to build out “external clouds” in the same way, he says.
  • Herrod also predicts that desktop virtualization will finally take off in 2009, because management of thick clients is becoming more and more complicated, and desktop virtualization technology has reached the point where it can provide the level of functionality that end users expect. The Yankee Group agrees, predicting that “2009 will be the year that enterprises move away from the pilot and evaluation stages and finally take the desktop virtualization plunge.”

That’s all I got. What do YOU think will happen in the virtualization market in 2009?

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