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More predictions for solid IT growth, this time from Forrester

Looks like I should have waited a couple more days before filing my post last week about Gartner’s 2011 IT spending predictions. That’s because Forrester Research has just made its own proclamation about the market, looking for even higher rates of growth.

In his blog this week, Forrester Research’s principal analyst, Andrew Bartels, says that spending in 2011 will be about the same as the trends they have tracked for 2010, about 7.1 percent or 7.2 percent. But here are the three things that Bartels believes will be different about 2011, when looking back at 2010:

  1. The growth in 2011 will be focused on NEW projects, not pent-up projects that had been put on hold. That backlog effect was largely responsible for the bounceback in spending during 2010, according to Bartels.
  2. The relatively strong forecast for software points to long-term growth trends, because recoveries are typically led by hardware sales.
  3. While the pace of growth in 2010 was driven by the healthiness of emerging markets, growth will be more balanced between the various countries in 2011, Bartels believes, with more of them pulling their weight. Bartels writes: “Growth measured in local currencies will still be highest in Latin America and EEMEA [which includes Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa], but tech vendors can expect solid growth in the much larger markets of North America, Europe and Asia Pacific.”

Here are two of Forrester Research’s specific predictions, gleaned from the company’s “2010 to 2012 Global Tech Industry Outlook.”

  • On a global basis, the research firm expects IT purchases will be $1.69 trillion in 2011, with software accounting for the largest portion of the spend at $430 billion. Of THAT amount, $148 billion will go to middleware, $212 billion will go to applications, $43 billion will go to custom-built software and $28 billion will go to operating systems.
  • The United States should account for about $601 billion of the total spending, which is an increase of about 7.5 percent over 2010.

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