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Truth in market forecasting – The imminent death of Windows

As part of our relentless search for market-trend indicators (it was the No. 1 item in a Google on “linux market prediction”), we ran across this eruditely argued analysis of the tenuous market position of Windows and the need of the industry to move beyond its dependence on Microsoft:

Are you a Microsoft investor? Be afraid. Be very afraid. By 2010 Windows will be as dead as CP/M, and every Windows-based software vendor will be either supporting Linux or out of business.

Eep.

The process is in fact 80% complete:

80%!

The end result is already obvious to bright CEOs,

Why haven’t we noticed yet?

and will shortly be obvious even to bright mainstream press columnists.

Oh. Maybe they’ll tell us.

subhed: How do you extrapolate an exponential?

Now we’re ready to believe. That subheading makes the whole thing sound like one of those papers the smart kid turned in during Advanced Physics – the ones you wanted to refute, but couldn’t figure out how.

Then we noticed the publication date: Jan 10, 1999.

Sigh.

Back to covering Vista.

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